Boise State vs Michigan State 8/31/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Boise State winning 47% of simulations, and Michigan State 53% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Boise State commits fewer turnovers in 14% of simulations and they go on to win 58% when they take care of the ball. Michigan State wins 60% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. D.J. Harper is averaging 73 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (34% chance) then he helps his team win 59%. Le\'Veon Bell is averaging 86 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (35% chance) then he helps his team win 68%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is MICHST -5.5 --- Over/Under line is 52

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